What to expect from Copenhagen

What to expect from Copenhagen?

By Ann Pettifor, December 1st 2009

In the week before Copenhagen, the country with the highest coal exports and highest per capita emissions in the world – Australia – had its efforts to cut emissions unexpectedly subverted by the opposition. They pounced on the Australia’s Prime Minister’s efforts to cut emissions just as he boarded the plane for Copenhagen. So he will not have much to boast about at the United Nations ‘Conference of the Parties’ next week – the 15th (hence COP 15) to have met since the Rio Summit in 1992.

But the shenanigans down under will pale into insignificance beside the high political drama unfolding in Copenhagen over the next ten days. So keep your eyes glued – this is one of the most important and historic events of our lifetimes – and may well determine all our fates.

The nature of the forces at work in Copenhagen make it hard to predict the outcome. But we should expect a non-binding agreement to emerge. This will not have legal enforcement status, but it could be the basis for a treaty to be signed at COP 16 in Mexico City in December, 2010.

Leaders may also agree to raise around €100 billion annually by 2020 for tackling climate change.   China’s effort will be self-financed, the rest, it is proposed, will come from international public finance; and from the carbon market.  We shall see.

As to cuts in emissions by rich countries: the promises so far are in the 25-40% on 1990 levels by 2020. Not ambitious enough – and some like Australia, may make no commitment at all.
Danish Prime Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen, who will host the event, has said that the: “overall aim will be to conclude a binding agreement that will set the path to limit global warming to a maximum of 2 degrees Celsius as recommended by science.”

An ambitious target indeed.

Will they have the political will to achieve it? Only you and I can make them do it.